Arctic may see single occurrences of ice-free days sooner than predicted
A recent study presents an alternate take on when the Arctic could see individual instances of ice-free days, with models pinpointing a quicker timeline than previously thought--as early as this decade
With the loss of the Arctic's sea ice a worrisome trend, projections continue to indicate when the region could see its first instance of an individual, ice-free day.
A recent study has indicated that the Arctic could become ice-free earlier than expected--whether it's a single day or a small group of days––when analyzing daily sea ice extent values, rather than the monthly median. The authors used daily output from multiple models to pinpoint predictions of when we could see the initial happening of an ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean.
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The study said current projections from climate models suggest the first monthly mean September sea ice area (SIA) at or below one million square kilometres could occur by 2050. However, projections of an ice-free Arctic have significant uncertainties as a result of model biases and internal variability.
But the research published in Nature Communications in December 2024 indicates we will see the first ice-free day with a coverage area of one million square kilometres or less before the September monthly mean reaches the ice-free threshold.
(Getty Images/Coldimages/135183496-170667a)
According to Flavio Lehner, chief climate scientist at Polar Bears International (PBI) and assistant professor at Cornell University, said daily sea ice extent values can vary significantly from day to day, influenced by factors such as extreme weather events, which have a greater impact than what is observed in monthly averages.
An ice-free Arctic could have serious ramifications for ecosystems and Earth's climate with the resulting weather pattern shifts.
"It used to be, and not even that long ago, we were projecting these changes happening decades from now, or even at the end of the century," said Lehner, in an interview with The Weather Network earlier this year.
Study uses 'storyline approach'
Using what the researchers called a "storyline approach," the study concentrated on nine simulations of when the first ice-free day occurs within three to six years, including a potential date before 2030.
The approach was used to understand the cause of an "unlikely but high-impact transition" to the first ice-free day, the authors noted. Researchers indicated the early, ice-free days all happen during a rapid ice-loss event and are associated with a potent winter and spring warming.
Arctic sea ice in September 2008. (Getty Images/Stocktrek Images/89614899-170667a)
"You can have an extreme weather event, you can have all kinds of things affecting the daily sea ice extent much more than you would see in a monthly average, where some of this weather noise gets averaged out," said Lehner.
Commenting on the findings of the study, Lehner said if you look at the daily sea ice extent values, rather than monthly, you will find some individual days or a couple of days where the Arctic becomes ice-free earlier than what scientists see in the monthly averages.
"Ultimately, though, the sort of projections and the physics, as far as we understand, is the same as some of these previous studies," he added.
Ice-free day happening in this decade 'not very likely'
While the first documentation of ice-free conditions is significant, a change to an Arctic Ocean that regularly has a sea ice area of less than one million square kilometres in the summer is expected to have "cascading effects on the rest of the climate system," the study's authors said.
"It would notably enhance the warming of the upper ocean, accelerating sea ice loss year-round, therefore further accelerating climate change, and could also induce more extreme events at mid-latitudes," the study said.
Any additional loss of summer sea ice cover will also negatively affect the "already-stressed" Arctic ecosystem--from the polar bear to the crucial zooplankton, it added.
Arctic sea ice. (Getty Images/TT/1463805178-170667a)
But don't hit the panic button just yet.
While the ramifications of declining Arctic sea ice cover has been studied extensively, Lehner said the chances of an ice-free day happening in this decade "is not very likely."
"That doesn't mean it can't happen, right? It just has a small probability of happening," said Lehner.
Among the hundreds of climate model simulations and projections of how sea ice would evolve in the future, there's only a handful, less than 10, of them where we do see an ice-free Arctic for an individual day in the next couple of years, he added.
"It's still kind of interesting to see that possibility, as small as it is, for this to happen in just the next couple of years," said Lehner.
Wildlife and residents will see 'most immediate' impact
The inhabitants of the Arctic region are already seeing negative ramifications of the dwindling sea ice cover.
But, if the study's projections do come to fruition this decade, PBI's chief climate scientist said the most immediate impact will be on wildlife and locals that depend on sea ice, especially "if we're talking about an ice-free day occurring within just the next couple of years to a decade. That's a very rapid change in the environment."
(SeppFriedhuber. E+/Getty Images)
"Think of this as a shock to the ecosystem and its inhabitants--humans and animals. So one classic example to think about is polar bears, which rely on sea ice as a hunting platform to hunt seals. They have no sea ice. They don't really stand a chance of catching seals. They're decent swimmers, but not good enough to get them," said Lehner.
With no sea ice to use to hunt on, the bears will have to rely on their fat reserves, which would be drained quicker than usual because they're going without these "energy-dense sources" of food for extended periods of time, Lehner said.
"Obviously, the longer they have to do that, the more it becomes a problem and a possibility they would not survive," said Lehner.
However, the other option that animals, in general, have is if their habitat changes rapidly in a way that's not favourable to them, they could move to different areas, he noted. But the Arctic isn't your typical territory or landscape where the animals can freely roam.
"With animals in the Arctic that are already at the coldest part of the planet, they cannot move farther north. If the sea ice is gone, there is no sea ice to find, then this is literally a complete disappearance of their habitat," said Lehner.
"That's why this is such a fundamental threat to Arctic species. [They] have no other place to go if we warm the planet."
There is still hope for the Arctic in a warming world
Without the aid of climate change, the prospects of a potential ice-free day in the Arctic would basically be zero. According to NASA summer Arctic sea ice extent is dropping by 12.2 per cent a decade as a result of the warmer temperatures. The rate is that high when compared to its average extent from 1981 to 2010.
Polar bear. (Getty Images/Rulle Magnusson/2224075157-170667a)
"It's already been such a dramatic change in the Arctic in terms of the ice extent. We're so far from where the sea ice was, as best as we understand, before humans started to emit greenhouse gases that I think the probability of seeing an ice-free Arctic without the current climate change is basically zero," said Lehner.
While the news of the Arctic sea ice melt has been overwhelmingly alarming, there is still hope for the Far North.
In order to reverse course on a bleak future for the Arctic, our net greenhouse gas emissions, fundamentally, would need to reach zero, Lehner said, as we would need to stop global warming in its tracks.
"This can be achieved most effectively by stopping emissions. You hear a lot of talk about carbon dioxide removal techniques that comes from the fact that there are some emissions in in our current infrastructure, and our current endeavour as a human species, that are really difficult to reduce," said Lehner.
Arctic sea ice. (wildestanimal. Moment. Getty Images)
"The hope is that some of these difficult or hard-to-mitigate emissions could be compensated by some technologies that can remove carbon dioxide actively from the atmosphere. Now, some of these technologies exist, but they are not very effective or scalable, yet."
The latest science suggests that if we were able to reverse climate change and reduce temperatures again, the sea ice could come back once again, Lehner said, while cautioning it's not a guarantee, though.
"Disappearance of sea ice is not necessarily irreversible, but for this, we'd have to bring global temperatures back down," said Lehner.
"It's a bit of a hopeful approach to think that [those] technologies will help us out of this pickle. Fundamentally, we have to reduce emissions to zero overall, to be able to slow and stop, and eventually, even reverse the current warming. [It's] a big task, but fundamentally we know how to do it."
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Thumbnail courtesy of Getty Images/Frank Gunther/2220213277-170667a.
