Canada's October wild card: Record warmth on the table, but snow still in play
For most Canadians, October 2025 points to more sunshine, fewer storms, and less rain than average. But, we can't rule out snowfall for some areas in Canada
October is Canada’s month of contrasts, a time of where summer’s final gasp collides with the first hints of winter.
This year, however, the scale tips firmly towards warmth.
Visit our Complete Guide to Fall 2025 for an in depth look at the Fall Forecast, tips to plan for it and much more!
Strong signals suggest October could rank among the warmest on record for much of the country, with a final crack at 30°C still possible in the early days of the month. For most Canadians, the October outlook points to more sunshine, fewer storms, and less rain than average.
Be warned, however, that October never fully lets go of its wild side, even in a record-warm month. Snow can sneak onto the Prairies, and stormy interruptions remain possible.
British Columbia: When it rains, it pours
Despite wetter spells, it’s not all doom and gloom. Extended dry stretches during the first half of the month will contrast with soaking, frontal systems later in October.
The unusually warm North Pacific will fuel stronger, moisture-laden storms when they do arrive. Even if the number of stormy days is near normal, rainfall totals can easily tip to above normal.
The Prairies: Warmth wins, but snow is never far
Warmth still rules: Extended stretches of mild, sunny days will likely dominate the month.
Snow insurance policy: One storm is all it takes. Snow can still arrive, even in record-warm Octobers.
Harvest-friendly: Unlike 2019’s disruptive, early snowpack, the fields shouldn’t face prolonged snow cover this year.
Ontario and Quebec: Sunshine, warmth, and a final shot at 30°C
Golden autumn: Sunshine, fewer storms, and lingering warmth define the pattern.
A last 30°C chance: Southern Ontario, and even Quebec, have a legitimate shot at hitting 30°C again, last achieved in Ontario in 2019 and 2023.
Thanksgiving bonus: A holiday weekend that reaches the 20s is very much on the table.
Dormant storm track: Most systems will track north to Minnesota, James Bay and northern Quebec, leaving southern regions relatively quiet.
Although the Prairies have the higher October snow risk this year, we can’t rule out northern Ontario, either.
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Atlantic Canada: Escaping the storm, embracing the calm
Warmth lingers into early October, though not as extreme as in Ontario and Quebec.
The tropical season isn’t finished, but the odds are increasing that Atlantic Canada avoids a major storm. Overall, it will be a calmer October along the coast.
By late October, even a mild day can feel like sweater weather after the heat at the start of the month. Even in record-warm Octobers, winter can still sneak across the Prairies, and while late-month, lake-effect snow squalls are always possible, this year the odds are lower.
October has been known to deliver sharp contrasts and powerful storms, but in 2025, the compass is pointing toward warmth, sunshine, and quieter skies. Enjoy the bonus stretch of pleasant weather, because sweater season is waiting just around the corner.
WATCH: Fall Forecast extended: A warmer autumn expected for most, but not all
Stay tuned to The Weather Network for the latest forecast updates across Canada as October progresses.