Could a dry June tip B.C.’s wildfire season?
B.C.'s wildfire season is off to an early, intense start, with nearly 130,000 hectares burned amid unusually dry conditions.
Historically, June can play a pivotal role in shaping how B.C.’s wildfire season unfolds--but it turns out the link isn’t always straightforward.
So far, the 2025 wildfire season is ahead of schedule:
281 fires reported as of June 2
129,243 hectares burned — over three times the recent seasonal averages for early June
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More than 99 per cent of the area burned comes from just one region: the Prince George Fire Centre. Located in the northeast corner of the province, this area is currently facing multi-year drought conditions, helping explain the severity of the early-season fire activity.
Does June rainfall really matter?
Looking at June precipitation from five locations--Abbotsford, Campbell River, Golden, Vancouver, and Victoria--a nine-year period from 2015 to 2024 reveals a negative correlation between June rainfall and the total number of hectares burned across B.C.
In simple terms: Drier Junes often align with more severe fire seasons, but it’s not a sure thing.
There’s a noticeable trend, but it’s not strong enough to confirm rainfall alone drives the outcome.
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Other factors, such as heatwaves in July and August, lightning frequency, and localized wind events often have just as much--if not more--influence.
When June doesn’t deliver
Some standout seasons:
2024: A wet June overall, but 1.08 million hectares burned, driven by a major lightning outbreak in July. An exception that proves the rule: Rain helps, but timing and ignition sources matter
2023: Just 119 mm of June rain across the five stations--a record 2.84 million hectares burned, and a 28-day provincial state of emergency declared.
2020: A very wet June (307 mm) aligned with one of the calmest fire seasons: 14,536 hectares burned.
2018: 221 mm of rain, yet 1.35 million hectares burned. More than 70,000 lightning strikes between July 31 and Aug. 1 triggered hundreds of fires.
The current concern: June’s dry turn comes early
What’s particularly concerning is that the first half of June is trending well below normal in terms of precipitation, with little rain expected through mid-month.
Typically, June offers a final buffer of moisture before wildfire season hits its stride, but this year, that dry turn is arriving weeks earlier than usual.
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Typically, June acts as a final moisture buffer before the peak of wildfire season in July and August. But this year, the dry turn is arriving weeks earlier than normal.
If the pattern holds, and if lightning activity trends above normal, B.C. could be on track for another high-impact wildfire season.