La Niña absent for hurricane season—but could lurk again by fall
Forecasters expect ‘neutral’ conditions to prevail through this year’s Atlantic hurricane season
A short and strange La Niña event officially came to an end last month, and conditions across a critical section of the Pacific Ocean remain near-normal heading into the beginning of this summer.
For as much of an impact as El Niño and La Niña can have on global weather, the lack of either pattern can also affect large-scale conditions—including the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.
RELATED: What happens when El Niño and La Niña disappear?
Neutral conditions likely through the summer
El Niño and La Niña are events during which water temperatures around the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean come in warmer (El Niño) or colder (La Niña) than normal.
This overall pattern, called ENSO for short, can have far-reaching effects that range from wildfires in Australia to snowstorms in Canada.
We’re currently in ENSO-Neutral conditions, which means that neither El Niño nor La Niña are present across that key section of the Pacific Ocean.
Forecasters with the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported in their monthly forecast on May 8 that there’s a 74 per cent chance that neutral conditions will prevail through at least August, with odds sitting around 50 per cent that ENSO-Neutral will continue into October.
There’s growing uncertainty about what may happen heading into the autumn months, with forecasters seeing an uptick in the odds of a potential return to La Niña conditions ahead of the winter season.
A busy Atlantic hurricane season possible
The lack of a major driving force in the Pacific Ocean leaves meteorologists without a significant leg-up when looking for clues about our summer ahead. Forecasters here in Canada will have to rely on smaller-scale features for hints about what to expect this summer.
DON’T MISS: Experts predict an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season
Neutral conditions can, however, influence the Atlantic hurricane season by dampening the amount of wind shear blowing east out of the Pacific and over the Atlantic. Wind shear is destructive to a budding tropical cyclone as it disrupts the thunderstorms that power these growing systems.
Lower wind shear removes a major obstacle to tropical formation, which could combine with other favourable ingredients to contribute to an above-average season this year.
Wondering what the end of La Niña could mean for your summer across Canada? Check out our summer sneak peek, and don’t miss the release of our summer forecast on Wednesday, May 28.