La Niña continues, but these factors may matter more this winter
La Niña conditions persisted into November, meteorologists said this week
Water temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean remain colder than normal, a sign that La Niña conditions will persist heading into the beginning of the winter season.
La Niña can have a significant impact on winter weather across the northern hemisphere.
But this year’s weak event may allow other factors to play more of a dominant role in determining our overall patterns this season.
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La Niña continues in the Pacific Ocean
Water temperatures around the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean continue to run more than 0.5°C below seasonal, a sign that La Niña conditions are present across the region.
The cooler-than-normal waters of a typical La Niña can have far-reaching effects on wintertime weather patterns across the northern hemisphere. These chilly ocean readings can influence the jet stream in ways that affect temperatures and storm tracks here at home.
Forecasters with the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) see favourable odds that La Niña conditions will persist into the heart of winter before water temperatures moderate and we start tilting back toward ENSO-Neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
Neutral conditions, in which neither La Niña nor El Niño are present, are favoured by the end of winter and into the early spring, according to the CPC’s November forecast update.
La Niña isn’t the only player on the field this winter
This year’s La Niña is relatively weak, which will likely limit how much influence it can exert on Canada’s winter season ahead. Other factors closer to home may play more of a role in this season’s overall patterns.
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Meteorologists will closely watch the movement and strength of the polar vortex for signs of significant temperature anomalies throughout this upcoming winter. Disruptions to the polar vortex can send bitterly cold air plunging toward southern latitudes, sometimes resulting in memorable cold snaps.
Some other factors that may play a starring role in determining our winter patterns include water temperatures across the northern Pacific Ocean, as well as atmospheric blocking patterns at higher latitudes.
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