November hurricanes are still possible as the season winds down
November has a history of producing the occasional intense and damaging hurricane
A hurricane is the farthest thing from our minds as the leaves change and temperatures drop.
But the season isn’t done just yet, and even a quiet season can have a few tricks up its sleeve heading into late autumn.
Here’s a look at what we might expect over the next couple of weeks as we enter the final stretch of this near-record quiet hurricane season.
DON’T MISS: Autumn can still produce intense hurricanes across the Atlantic
A raging El Niño in the neighbouring Pacific Ocean has kept this Atlantic hurricane season exceptionally quiet.
Nine of this year’s ten named storms only achieved tropical storm intensity. Isaias, which set a record for its lateness, grew into the season’s sole hurricane before it slammed into Florida’s coastline on Oct. 9.
Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30. Based on climatology, a little more than 90 per cent of an average hurricane season’s total activity is behind us by the weekend before Halloween.
But that remaining 10 per cent can pack a punch if all the right conditions align. The most likely spot for tropical formation this late in the season is the western Caribbean Sea and the southwestern Atlantic.
Tropical disturbances over Central America, as well as from the remnants of cold fronts moving into the region, usually serve as the seeds to develop these late-season storms.
A secondary area over the central Atlantic is known to see low-pressure systems briefly acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics as they meander safely away from land.
We’ve seen a handful of major hurricanes move through the Caribbean and Gulf during November over the past 40 years.
Many of these powerful November hurricanes formed during active seasons like 2020 and 2008. Hurricanes Eta and Iota both intensified into Category 4 storms before slamming into the same stretch of Nicaraguan coastline in mid-Nov. 2020.
Coastal residents and vacationers alike can breathe a sigh of relief through Halloween at the least.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) and weather models agree that tropical development isn’t expected in the Atlantic basin through the end of the month. We may have to watch the western Caribbean during the opening days of November for hints of activity.