Pacific hurricane season off to quick start with first system on deck
Next week we may see the first tropical system of the Pacific hurricane season
It’s been official for a while now, but why not say it again to make sure? Hurricane season is officially upon us, in the eastern Pacific Ocean anyway.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to Nov. 30 (Central Pacific and Atlantic seasons run from June 1 to Nov. 30).
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With the start of the season comes the list of names that may be designated in the eastern Pacific this year.
First storm may form near Mexico
More importantly, the first area of interest this year for tropical developments has been spotted. A low-pressure system is expected to form near the southern coast of Mexico.
There’s an 80 per cent chance it could form early next week as the environment is favourable for the development of a tropical system. It’s set to form in a low wind shear environment, which helps the development of tropical systems.
READ MORE: It's been 50 year since the Pacific had this many tropical storms at once
This is your reminder that the Atlantic season doesn’t start until June 1, even if it ends at the same time as the Pacific. Atlantic hurricane season is also, on average, smaller than the Pacific season, but not by much.
Pacific storm season ahead?
We have to look at El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern involving sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
ENSO-neutral conditions: The Pacific Ocean is currently in an ENSO-neutral state, with sea surface temperatures near average. This leads to average wind shear conditions and sea surface temperatures, which can support moderate amounts of tropical activity.
Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): This negative phase is contributing to cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, which can suppress storm activity and limit intensity.
NOAA storm forecast
12-18 named storms
5-10 hurricanes
2-5 major hurricanes
For reference, last season produced only 14 storms, five hurricanes, and three major hurricanes–in line with NOAA’s early-season predictions.
Stay tuned to The Weather Network for the latest forecast updates on the Pacific hurricane season.