Powerful Pacific hurricanes threaten major flooding, impacts
Hawaii and Mexico are at risk from two separate hurricanes over the next couple of days
The Pacific remains firmly under the influence of El Niño this week as several hurricanes move through the region.
Hurricane Polo remains a high-end Category 4 storm as it churns off Mexico’s west coast. The system threatens an impactful landfall late this weekend.
Tropical Storm Nolo is gathering strength as it inches toward Hawaii over the next few days, threatening major flooding across areas already hard-hit by storms this year.
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Hurricane Polo on the edge of Category 5 status
The fact that we have two concurrent storms named “Polo” and “Nolo” is a coincidence of how storms are named both in the eastern and central Pacific basins.
Polo is the history-making hurricane lurking off the western shores of Mexico. The system has reached scale-topping Category 5 intensity twice this week, and the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects it to reach that peak one more time by Friday morning.
The intense hurricane is currently moving west away from land. Polo will start to weaken through this weekend as it gradually hooks back toward the northeast, likely making landfall on Mexico’s Baja Peninsula during the day Monday.
A deep reserve of tropical moisture will follow the storm inland through next week. Flooding rains are possible throughout portions of the U.S. Southwest and southern Plains. Some of Polo’s remnant moisture may reach Canada by this time next week.
Major flood threat builds in Hawaii
Tropical Storm Nolo is teetering on the edge of hurricane strength as it spins about 700 kilometres south of Hawaii’s Big Island.
The system is in a favourable environment to intensify into a major hurricane over the next few days as it tracks perilously close to the Big Island, where a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are in effect.
A persistent stream of intense tropical moisture streaming into the islands’ rugged terrain will unleash flooding rains through the weekend.
Rainfall totals of 500-750+ mm are expected on the Big Island, with 200-400+ mm in the forecast for Maui. Oahu, home to Honolulu, may see 50-100 mm of rain from this system.
Nolo’s arrival is terrible news for an island chain that’s already been hit hard by damaging winds and flooding rains by three other storms this season, including Hurricane Lala, Tropical Storm Moke, and Hurricane Lowell.
Odalys also in the mix
A third hurricane, named Odalys, is located roughly halfway between Nolo and Polo. The system is a formidable hurricane in its own right, though it’s expected to remain safely out to sea where it will weaken over the next five days.
Based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), this will soon be the fifth-most active northeast Pacific hurricane season since records began in 1949. Meanwhile, the Atlantic basin has seen less than 10 per cent of its normal activity so far this year.