Tornado risk in Thursday severe weather setup in parts of Ontario, Quebec
Thursday is shaping up to be the most active day of the week for severe weather potential in Ontario and Quebec, with a tornado risk for some areas
With the heat and humidity returning to Central Canada, the risk for thunderstorms will also be on the rise in Ontario and Quebec on Thursday.
The threat of severe thunderstorms escalates Thursday, particularly for northeastern and eastern Ontario, as well as areas near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, and parts of Quebec.
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While the main risks are hail, heavy downpours and potent, potentially damaging wind gusts, there is a chance of rotation and one or two tornadoes for parts of northeastern Ontario, Lake Huron-Georgian Bay shores and Quebec.
Make sure you keep an eye on the radar––especially if you have outdoor plans––and stay aware of any severe weather watches or warnings issued in your area.
Thursday: Watching for the strongest storms of the week
The ingredients for severe weather, including moisture, instability, a trigger and wind shear, will all be present Thursday afternoon and evening.
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Southern and eastern Ontario will see very muggy air, pushing the humidex into the 40s for the afternoon. Conditions will remain dry until the evening time.
A low-pressure system will trigger severe thunderstorms as it walks into a highly moist and unstable air mass by the late afternoon.
Thunderstorms will initiate in the northeastern sections first by around 4 p.m. or 5 p.m., arching into Quebec, as well. That is where the highest confidence for severe weather will be.
Initially, some storms could be discrete, so there is a potential for rotation and a tornado--with the highest risk for development in Quebec.
There is also a risk for heavy to torrential rainfall, which may lead to localized flooding. Amounts may exceed 50+mm.
As thunderstorms mature, they are expected to become linear, raising the risk for a damaging wind-gust threat (90-100+ km/h).
Southern Ontario may see stormy weather, from Georgian Bay to Lake Huron shores, from 7 p.m. or 8 p.m. onwards. Damaging winds and embedded rotation are possible but there is more uncertainty in the forecast here.
Storms may push inland and affect the northern Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in the late evening and overnight. By this time, however, thunderstorm energy will be diminishing so severity is uncertain.Rain will linger into Friday morning for the GTA.
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Stay with The Weather Network for more information and updates on your weather across Ontario and Quebec.