What forecasters are predicting for Canada's 2025 wildfire season
'Unless we get torrential rains, we're not going to put these fires out'
Canada’s wildfire season is already off to a troubling start, and forecasts suggest we could be in for a long, intense stretch.
“Some of the fires we're dealing with right now in northeastern British Columbia started in 2023," explains Dr. Mike Flannigan, a fire weather and climate change professor with Thompson Rivers University. "I've been watching fire since the 1970s. I've never seen a fire burn through two winters. And the scary part is there's still a drought. It could burn through a third winter and keep on going.”
The Weather Network meteorologist Dr. Doug Gillham emphasizes that while weather is just one factor influencing wildfires, it is the most critical one. Once a fire is burning, weather will dictate to what extent the flames will spread or how easy it will be to get them under control.
“Hot and dry weather by itself doesn't set fires, but it becomes very difficult to control fires if one does ignite,” he says. "Unfortunately, we are very concerned about Western Canada, especially as we get into July and August, much above normal temperatures and less than normal precipitation. And you know, in B.C., summer is the driest time of the year; even normal precipitation wouldn't alleviate the wildfire threat."
Precipitation forecast for Summer 2025. (The Weather Network)
And it’s not just the flames we need to worry about; smoke from wildfires carries major health risks.
"Wildfire smoke in particular is made up of gases, solids, and particles," explains Rhythm Reet, another meteorologist at The Weather Network. "It's tiny particles that get suspended into the atmosphere, so the ones that cause a lot of risk to our health are going to be fine particles, which are essentially particulate matter, which is around 2.5 micrometres or smaller.”
You may be surprised to learn that air quality is usually at its worst in the evening. Especially if winds are calm. And that’s because the highest concentration of particles falls to the ground later in the day.
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And a fire doesn’t have to be nearby for the smoke to impact your health.
"When we have smoke, it travels to the upper level," continues Reet. "It can get caught in some of the jet stream or any low-pressure system. And we know low-pressure systems travel all across Canada. So when the smoke is trapped at those higher levels with the winds, it'll help to transport all of that smoke to different portions of Canada."
With more heat, less rain, and fires already burning, conditions are primed for a volatile season. Experts say this is the new normal as our climate continues to warm, making awareness and preparation more important than ever.
WATCH BELOW: Does breathing in wildfire smoke mean lung issues for life?
(Header image courtesy of the Government of Manitoba)