Winter snowfall across Canada may fall victim to El Niño
A warmer-than-normal pattern could significantly affect how much snow flies across the country this winter
Snow lovers across Canada may not enjoy what El Niño has to offer the country this winter.
The powerful Pacific pattern, which is likely headed toward historic heights in the next few months, could significantly affect how much snow falls across Canada this winter.
WINTER SNEAK PEEK: El Niño puts record warmth in play
El Niño’s shadow looms over this winter
We can learn quite a bit from previous winters that featured a strong El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. These events typically favour patterns that sweep mild Pacific air across Canada, keeping wintertime temperatures warmer than normal.
True to form, this winter will start on a warmer note and see above-seasonal conditions linger through the remainder of the season. A big question mark surrounds the end of the season regarding how quickly El Niño fades in early 2027.
An active storm track is likely to set up farther to the south than we’d see during a usual winter, potentially keeping higher-impact systems stateside. This suppressed track, combined with warmer temperatures, should average out to below-average snowfall throughout Canada.
This may be particularly tough for some ski regions. While Alpine areas may be able to cobble together near-normal snowfall totals, ski areas in Ontario and Quebec will struggle this season.
Plenty of caveats for snow lovers
Make no mistake: An above-seasonal winter is still plenty cold enough for snow across Canada. But the patterns that bring warmer temperatures can also stifle opportunities for big snowfall events, and that deficit can add up to below-normal snowfall.
Winter will still break through. Sharp bursts of high-impact winter weather are likely, though they’re not likely to last for a significant period of time. El Niño winters in the past have still seen bitter cold snaps and major winter storms.
Warmer temperatures may mean more snow for some! Bitterly cold temperatures can grow a little too cold for bountiful snows. If the storm track and temperature setup align just right, a warmer pattern could actually bring some areas more snow than they’d usually see in one thump.
It only takes one. A single impactful winter storm can shift how this winter is ultimately perceived. If a blizzard happens to hit a major metro area, for instance, the memory of a warmer winter as a whole may take a backseat to that one storm.